Social Media is blowing up with Michael Moore’s recent article listing 5 reasons Trump will win. I don’t buy it, and here’s why.
First off, Moore invokes math…seems like a good start, right? Well I’m not sure what math he is looking at, but in the current polls, all of these states are either leaning or a fairly solid blue. But even polls change, and we have still have a bit to go right? Then let’s look at how these states voted in the last 6 presidential elections. Of the rust belt states he lists, all but Ohio have gone blue in the past 6 elections (OH just the last 2). But if you need any more reassurance where Ohio is concerned, look no further than Trump’s own campaign and John Kasich. Trump is not investing his resources in OH. He is only now starting to get serious about his ground game. He has so far left that up to the state parties. Trouble is, as the state party’s leader, Kasich will not lift a finger to help Trump win which will be a large impediment for him to succeed in the state. So don’t worry, the math is still on Hillary’s side. Nate Silver has three different forecasts, with Hillary coming out on top for 2 out of 3. The third is his “now forecast” which is probably reflecting some post-convention bump (which is standard).
Math is a funny thing. It doesn’t take sides. Math helped Trump win when he was in a primary with like 50 other candidates (I didn’t say I was the mathematician, ok? It was a lot.) Republicans could not coalesce between a single candidate and here we are. Splitting the vote helped him in the primary. Gary Johnson is waiting in the wings, inching toward the coveted 15% support, hoping to get a spot in the debates. He is likely to take an unprecedented number of voters away from Trump, much less than Hillary**. (Hello, Nader)
Even Mississippi and Arizona are in play this year.
Well what about Midwesterner’s concerns about trade that Moore brings up? He says Hillary supports the TPP but she no longer does and neither does her running mate. Moreover, most blue-collar unions in the Midwest are endorsing Clinton. Not to mention Trump’s running mate, who historically hates unions and has been an enemy to the unions for years. Good luck with that, Donald.
One more thing….This Trumped up campaignnot equivalent to a Midwest Brexit.
By the time Moore got to his second point, he either got lazy or just forgot that it’s all about the math. Yes, we get it. The angry white man is just so angry!! But again, the polls tell differently, and those men have wives and their wives do NOT like Trump. Has Moore forgotten that half the population is women? And Trump has a problem with women, even in the Midwest.
To his 3rd point…yes, Hillary is unpopular. But so is Trump! Dems may dislike Hillary, but they HATE Trump with the fire of a thousand suns, and that will bring them to the polls. Especially when they are reminded of the magnitude of this election, namely up to three SCOTUS appointments. “No Democrat, and certainly no independent, is waking up on November 8th excited to run out and vote for Hillary the way they did the day Obama became president or when Bernie was on the primary ballot” Actually, no, Mr. Moore. Have you forgotten all the PUMAS (Party Unity My Ass) against Obama? They were Hillary supporters, by the way. And they eventually came around, just like Sanders’ supporters are now. And again, the stakes are much higher now. Donald Trump, for Christ’s sake! The ire the Dems had for Romney in 2012 was nothing compared to what we feel for Trump. Moore focuses on millennials in particular not liking her but the reality is that a lot of them don’t really get out to the polls. You know what other major demographic does go to the polls though? Old people. And she is doing well with them.
His 4th point seems to contradict the 3rd and admits to basically what I just argued above. They will vote for Hillary. He calls it the depressed vote but….a vote is a vote, dude. It’s all about the math. And again, that pesky youth vote (see above). And if there is a depressed vote, there is also a “scared of fascist president” vote too.
As for his 5th and final argument…maybe enough people wanted to try something crazy by electing a professional wrestler (I don’t remember the politics of that election) in one state. But there are not enough anomalies like that in the country to present a significant threat. The “shake things up” comment is usually just an intro, something people say when they don’t know what to say about him or how to even explain their position coherently, not just some impulse to lob oneself off a cliff. I am just not buying this as a valid reason.
In conclusion, I am fairly confident that Hillary will win. I am even hoping for a landslide. I partially wondered if Michael Moore is making this argument simply to keep people uneasy, make sure they don’t rest on their laurels and just assume she will win. But I think confidence is a good thing. And I want Hillary to have a mandate and Trump to have his ass roundly handed to him.
That being said, we cannot be complacent- get your butts out there and volunteer, vote, get your voices heard, and don’t forget about those Senate seats. That is where I think the race will really be. It will be tight, but it is doable. Republican senators all over the country are trying to distance themselves from Trump because they are so concerned about how much he will affect their down ballot races.
So how do you plan on volunteering? What will you do to not only defeat Trump, but send a strong message that what he stands for (racism, misogyny, fear, isolationism, xenophobia, to name a few off the top of my head) is unacceptable.
You can sign up to volunteer for Hillary in a number of ways, using your special talents. Do you know how to pick up a phone? Press numbers? Speak English or Spanish? Then you can help. This is especially useful in states like mine that is very blue. You can call voters in Florida, Nevada, Arizona, etc., and provide them with the logistical information for getting to their polling stations. The options are endless.
If you don’t like Hillary and can’t stomach actually working for her campaign, then simply get involved bygetting people registered.
Share this information with your friends, talk to people about it, don’t be shy. You will make new connections. You will make a difference. If you found this piece interesting or informative, please subscribe!
**correction: currently, with polls including both Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, support seems to be taken pretty equally from both Trump and Clinton. Time will tell how this will hold up.